The welfare cost of maize price volatility in Malawi

This paper investigates conditional and unconditional maize price volatility in Malawi at the country and local-economy market levels and related welfare costs. The empirical analysis applies an ARCH/GARCH approach that uses monthly data from January 1991 to March 2013, and the welfare cost is estimated via the Lucas formula. The study findings underline the importance of the domestic factors in explaining maize price volatility and of seasonality in affecting the unconditional variance and welfare cost.