Education, inequality and electoral participation

In comparative terms, Italian electoral turnout has been very high since 1946. However, during the five elections from 1994 to 2008, turnout dropped more steeply than it did over the previous 12 elections from 1946 to 1992. The difference between maximum turnout in the early 1950s and the 2008 election was about 12%, and most of this decline (8%) occurred in the period 1992–2008. This paper finds robust evidence that individual and contextual social inequalities have been key factors in the recent fall of turnout. In particular our results clearly suggest that contextual social inequality lowers the turnout of less-educated voters and leaves it unaffected among high-educated ones. The recent decline in turnout may therefore be indicative of an important shift towards more unequal political participation. These findings are consistent with data showing that the post-1994 parties performed very poorly as mobilisation agencies compared with the old parties. Indeed, according to Franklin (2004), turnout trends can be effectively explained by changes in institutional rules and by the degree of electoral competitiveness. This paper suggests that, in order to explain turnout trends, the interactive effects of social and individual inequality should also be considered.