Mortality Trends from Urologic Cancers in Europe over the Period 1980-2017 and a Projection to 2025

BACKGROUND: Patterns and trends in urologic cancer mortality still show geographical differences across Europe. OBJECTIVE: To monitor mortality trends from urologic cancers, including prostate, testis, bladder, and kidney cancers, in Europe. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We carried out a time-trend analysis for 36 European countries using the official World Health Organization database. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: We extracted the number of deaths and population data over the 1980-2017 period, and calculated age-standardised (world population) mortality rates for each cancer considered, sex, country, and the European Union (EU) as a whole, at all ages; at ages 35-64 yr for prostate, bladder, and kidney cancers; and at ages 20-44 yr for testicular cancer. For selected major countries, we carried out a joinpoint regression analysis to identify significant changes in trends. We also predicted the number of deaths and rates for 2025, using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint regression model. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Prostate cancer mortality in the EU decreased over recent years, reaching a rate of 10.3/100 000 in 2015 and a projected rate of 8.9/100 000 in 2025. Less favourable trends were observed in eastern Europe, though starting from relatively low rates. Testicular cancer mortality declined over time in most countries, however levelling off in northern and western countries, after reaching very low rates. EU testicular cancer mortality rate in 2015 was 0.3/100 000 at all ages and 0.6/100 000 at ages 20-44 yr. Bladder cancer mortality trends were less favourable in central and eastern countries compared to northern and western ones. The EU rates in 2015 were 5.1/100 000 men and 1.1/100 000 women. Kidney cancer mortality showed less favourable trends, with a slight increase in men and stable rates in women over the past decade in the EU. CONCLUSIONS: Mortality from prostate, testis, and bladder cancers, but not from kidney cancer, declined in most European countries, with less favourable trends in most eastern countries. PATIENT SUMMARY: Over the past four decades, mortality from prostate, testis, and bladder cancers, but not from kidney cancer, declined in most European countries. Prostate cancer mortality rates remain lower in Mediterranean countries than in northern and central Europe. Rates for all urologic cancers remain higher in central and eastern Europe.