Economic evaluation of the climate changes on food security in Iran: application of CGE model

The present study aims to examine the economic impact of changing climate variables on two components of food security in Iran: availability and access to food. Wheat and rice, the two most important foods in the country, were considered representatives of food security. A CGE model was developed to achieve the research goals. In this context, a stochastic model based on Monte Carlo simulation was used to provide three scenarios (best, average, and worst) indicating probable changes in climate variables. It is important to model the problem of changing climatic variables for irrigated crops, as groundwater resource depletion and restrictions on extraction from Iranian aquifers reduce planted areas and yields. Therefore, this study applies this model to both rain-fed and irrigated crops, whereas studies in the literature only evaluate rain-fed crops. Food security will face serious challenges as food supplies, and consumption of goods and services are declining in average and worst scenarios, according to findings. Consequently, the negative impact of climate change on food security and people’s livelihoods requires a review of the policies implemented within the country. Effective solutions include research and development to introduce drought-tolerant varieties and adopt appropriate strategies to adapt to climate change. Improving the incomes of farmers is one solution to mitigating the impacts of climate change.