Analyzing the European Intraday Market: Statistical Insightsand Strategies for Continuous Trading in Renewable Energy Systems

The global focus on climate change has led to policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions and integrating renewable resources into the energy system. As a result, the electrical energy market has undergone significant changes, including the adoption of continuous trading in the European intraday market. This model enables market agents to exchange energy close to the delivery time, addressing challenges related to renewable energy forecasting. This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the intraday market, examining the characteristics and behaviors of market players engaged in continuous trading. Statistical analyses, including density analysis, regression analysis, time-series analysis, and correlation analysis, are employed to investigate the relationship between submitted order prices and the trend price relative to the day-ahead market. The findings shed light on these market dynamics. Additionally, a novel strategy is proposed to optimize revenue by considering the probability of a successful match. This strategy assists market participants in maximizing profits while ensuring a reasonable chance of finding suitable trading partners. Overall, this research contributes to understanding the European intraday market, particularly continuous trading. The statistical analyses offer insights into market characteristics and player strategies. These findings have practical implications for market participants and policymakers, aiding in informed decision-making and efficient trading practices in the evolving energy landscape. The study's guidance assists stakeholders in navigating this dynamic environment, emphasizing the significance of renewable energy integration and continuous trading. By leveraging this research, stakeholders can enhance profitability, contribute to renewable resource integration, and make informed decisions in the energy market.