Geodynamic pacemaker of Phanerozoic climate: A multivariate analysis of plate boundary processes and global temperature variations

Global long-term surface temperature variations throughout the Phanerozoic are related to changes in concentrations of carbon compounds in the atmosphere, but the deeper the time, the more uncertain becomes the information about carbon budgets and fluxes preserved in geological archives. Although some temporal correlations between climate changes and individual geodynamic processes have been recognized, a comprehensive understanding of the relationships between long-term changes in Global Average Temperature and the ensemble of geodynamic climate-forcing mechanisms throughout the Phanerozoic Eon is elusive. Here, building upon literature data, we perform a simple cross-correlation multivariate analyses to investigate relationships between Phanerozoic Global Average Temperature and different geodynamics occurring along plate boundaries. Our analysis suggests that Earth's climate operates as a multi-driver system, with no single dominant mechanism identifiable throughout the Phanerozoic. In addition, cooling and heating geodynamic processes require different timescales to fully exert their effects on global temperature. These outcomes highlight the necessity of integrative approaches that consider multiple processes to explain the paleoclimate evolution of the Earth. Within this broader framework, the cycles of supercontinent assembly and breakup are key in modulating the relative development of cooling and heating plate margins over geologic timescales, effectively serving as the primary pacemaker of Global Average Temperature variations.