Soil aridification, precipitation, and infant health: Evidence from Africa

While research has studied the effects of climate variation on child nutrition, the role of soil moisture and degradation in shaping child well-being remains relatively understudied. Combining climate and infant health data from Africa, we show that rainfall’s health benefits are mediated by potential evapotranspiration (PET), highlighting the importance of soil-retained moisture. Infants born in areas of greater PET face higher risks of being underweight at birth and of mortality under age five. Moreover, rainfall becomes less relevant for child health in regions experiencing stronger aridification. We find suggestive evidence that reliance on agriculture, as well as crop productivity and composition, are key mediating channels. These findings underscore the need to account for soil aridity, alongside temperature and precipitation, when assessing the economic and health impacts of climate, and call for policy action to improve soil and water resource management in developing countries.