The myelodysplastic syndromes: predictive value of eight prognostic systems in 143 cases from a single institution.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Despite the fact that several prognostic systems for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) have been proposed, few studies have been designed to test their effectiveness in independent patient populations. The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of 8 previously described prognostic systems in a series of consecutive MDS patients observed at a single institution over a 10-year period. DESIGN AND METHODS: One hundred and forty-three patients were diagnosed as having myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) according to the French-American-British (FAB) criteria. They were studied retrospectively in order to assess the prognostic value of the FAB classification and 7 other prognostic systems. RESULTS: On the basis of data at diagnosis, all investigated systems effectively stratified patients into groups with different life expectancies and identified a subset of patients with poor clinical outcome. However, the systems had different outcomes concerning median survival of patients classified as low-risk, ranging from less than 3 years for the Mufti scoring system to more than 8 years for the FAB classification modified according to Rosati et al. Moreover, patient distribution into different risk categories was quite different with the different prognostic systems. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: When applied to our case series, some of the prognostic systems had a much lower prognostic value than in the patient population from which they derived. This evidence suggests that testing of prognostic systems in independent case series is necessary before using the systems in clinical practice.