Dengue, one of the main global threats to public health, has experienced a significant increase in its incidence due to the geographic expansion of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus vectors. This phenomenon is driven by factors such as climate change, urbanization and the emergence of urban heat islands (UHIs), which lead to elevated temperatures that promote the development and transmission of the virus. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variations of land surface temperature (LST) in Córdoba, Argentina, using remote sensors such as MODIS and those on board the Landsat missions, with the objective of analyzing their relationship with UHIs and Ae. aegypti activity. Besides, we analyzed LST dynamics across data from 2014 to 2024 in a recently urbanized area in order to assess the thermal impact of land cover change. A key finding was that maximum in LST preceded peaks in Ae. aegypti oviposition by about six-seven weeks, revealing a clear lagged temperature–oviposition relationship. Spatial analysis revealed up to 5 °C differences in LST within the city, with significantly higher values in areas with reduced vegetation. In a specific case, the conversion of a vegetated area into a public park led to an average LST increase of 4 °C over six years, showing greater thermal intensification than a nearby stable vegetated site. Cluster analysis grouped mosquito trap locations based on LST levels, revealing consistent seasonal trends and lower normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values in hotter areas. Our findings confirm the influence of urban land cover changes on thermal variations and its potential to affect Ae. aegypti dynamics. As urban expansion continues, integrating thermal landscape monitoring into vector surveillance systems may help anticipate shifts in mosquito activity and dengue risk. Additionally, our results highlight the importance of using LST data at higher temporal frequency for enhanced vector risk assessment.
Spatio-Temporal Evaluation of Land Surface Temperature (LST) in Urban Areas: Assessing Its Adequacy for Dengue Risk Models
Benitez E. M.;Gamba P.
2025-01-01
Abstract
Dengue, one of the main global threats to public health, has experienced a significant increase in its incidence due to the geographic expansion of the Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus vectors. This phenomenon is driven by factors such as climate change, urbanization and the emergence of urban heat islands (UHIs), which lead to elevated temperatures that promote the development and transmission of the virus. This study evaluates the spatial and temporal variations of land surface temperature (LST) in Córdoba, Argentina, using remote sensors such as MODIS and those on board the Landsat missions, with the objective of analyzing their relationship with UHIs and Ae. aegypti activity. Besides, we analyzed LST dynamics across data from 2014 to 2024 in a recently urbanized area in order to assess the thermal impact of land cover change. A key finding was that maximum in LST preceded peaks in Ae. aegypti oviposition by about six-seven weeks, revealing a clear lagged temperature–oviposition relationship. Spatial analysis revealed up to 5 °C differences in LST within the city, with significantly higher values in areas with reduced vegetation. In a specific case, the conversion of a vegetated area into a public park led to an average LST increase of 4 °C over six years, showing greater thermal intensification than a nearby stable vegetated site. Cluster analysis grouped mosquito trap locations based on LST levels, revealing consistent seasonal trends and lower normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values in hotter areas. Our findings confirm the influence of urban land cover changes on thermal variations and its potential to affect Ae. aegypti dynamics. As urban expansion continues, integrating thermal landscape monitoring into vector surveillance systems may help anticipate shifts in mosquito activity and dengue risk. Additionally, our results highlight the importance of using LST data at higher temporal frequency for enhanced vector risk assessment.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
