A Methodological Proposal about Risk Analysis by the DPSIR Model.

This paper presents a methodological proposal for disaster risk analysis that explicitly integrates the traditional components of risk—Hazard, Exposure and Vulnerability—with the Driver–Pressure–State–Impact–Response (DPSIR) framework. Originally developed by the OECD and UNEP and later refined by the European Environment Agency, DPSIR is widely used to conceptualize complex socio-ecological systems. Its structured causal chain is particularly suitable for risk analysis, where natural and anthropogenic dynamics (Drivers) generate environmental Pressures, modify the State of natural and built systems, and lead to Impacts that are mitigated through societal Responses. The proposed approach formalizes the correspondence between DPSIR components and the risk equation: Hazard as a function of Pressures and State, Exposure resulting from Driving Forces and State, and Vulnerability determined by State and Responses. This enables a systematic, replicable assessment of risk across territories and hazards. To operationalize the model, the paper defines quantitative elements for each DPSIR element and demonstrates their application in disaster risk management and civil protection planning, with a particular focus on evaluating hazard–exposure relationships and the role of strategic Responses. The discussion highlights methodological requirements such as spatial and non-spatial data integration, multilayer modelling to represent complex systems, and the need to connect strategic planning with project-level implementation. The proposed framework supports quantitative assessment while ensuring that risk management remains rooted in governance, participation, and context-specific decision-making.